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Cross-country linkages as determinants of procyclicality of loan loss provisions

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  • Małgorzata Olszak
  • Mateusz Pipień

Abstract

Procyclicality in banking may result in financial instability and therefore be destructive to economic growth. The sensitivity of different banking balance sheet and income statement variables to the business cycle is diversified and may be prone to increasing integration of financial markets. In this paper, we address the problem of the influence of financial integration on the transmission of economic shocks from one country to another and consequently on the sensitivity of loan loss provisions (LLPs) to the business cycle. The application of the seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) approach to 13 OECD countries in 1995–2009 shows that the procyclicality of LLPs is statistically significant almost in the whole sample of countries. Regardless of the econometric specification, the income-smoothing, capital management and risk management hypotheses are hardly supported by the data. However, in SURE specification, the relationship of bank-specific variables is of higher statistical significance than in the country regression approach. Hence, cross-country interconnectedness is not only economically, but also empirically important when analyzing cross-country diversifications of LLPs.

Suggested Citation

  • Małgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipień, 2016. "Cross-country linkages as determinants of procyclicality of loan loss provisions," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 965-984, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:22:y:2016:i:11:p:965-984
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2014.983138
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    Cited by:

    1. Ozili, Peterson K & Outa, Erick R, 2018. "Bank Income Smoothing in South Africa: Role of Ownership, IFRS and Economic fluctuation," MPRA Paper 102567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ly, Kim Cuong & Shimizu, Katsutoshi, 2021. "Did Basel regulation cause a significant procyclicality?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Piotr Adamczyk & Mateusz Pipień, 2022. "On the Role of Portfolio Indicators of the Capital Flows in the Convergence Processes – An Application of Systems of Regression Equations in the Case of Selected CEE Countries," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 14(3), pages 303-333, September.
    4. Łukasz Kurowski & Paweł Smaga, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Cyclical Systemic Risk - Friends or Foes?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(5), pages 522-540.
    5. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:667:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS

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