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Bayesian Proportional Hazard Analysis of the Timing of High School Dropout Decisions

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  • Mingliang Li
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    Abstract

    In this paper, I study the timing of high school dropout decisions using data from High School and Beyond. I propose a Bayesian proportional hazard analysis framework that takes into account the specification of piecewise constant baseline hazard, the time-varying covariate of dropout eligibility, and individual, school, and state level random effects in the dropout hazard. I find that students who have reached their state compulsory school attendance ages are more likely to drop out of high school than those who have not reached compulsory school attendance ages. Regarding the school quality effects, a student is more likely to drop out of high school if the school she attends is associated with a higher pupil-teacher ratio or lower district expenditure per pupil. An interesting finding of the paper that comes along with the empirical results is that failure to account for the time-varying heterogeneity in the hazard, in this application, results in upward biases in the duration dependence estimates. Moreover, these upward biases are comparable in magnitude to the well-known downward biases in the duration dependence estimates when the modeling of the time-invariant heterogeneity in the hazard is absent.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.

    Volume (Year): 26 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 529-556

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:26:y:2007:i:5:p:529-556

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    Related research

    Keywords: Bayesian analysis; High school dropout behavior; Proportional hazard analysis;

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    Cited by:
    1. Li, Mingliang & Tobias, Justin L., 2011. "Bayesian inference in a correlated random coefficients model: Modeling causal effect heterogeneity with an application to heterogeneous returns to schooling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 345-361, June.
    2. Li, Mingliang, 2009. "Is there "white flight" into private schools? New evidence from High School and Beyond," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 382-392, June.

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