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Estimation And Inference On Long-Run Equilibria: A Simulation Study

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Author Info
Nunzio Cappuccio
Diego Lubian

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Abstract

In this paper we study the finite sample properties of some asymptotically equivalent estimators of cointegrating relationships and related test statistics: the Fully Modified Least Squares estimator proposed by Phillips and Hansen (1990), the Dynamic OLS estimator of Saikkonen (1991) and Stock and Watson (1993), the maximum likelihood estimator (reduced rank regression estimator) of Johansen (1988). On the basis of previous Monte Carlo results on this topic, the main objective of our simulation experiments is to study the sensitivity of the finite sample distribution of estimators and test statistics to three features of the DGP of the observable variables, namely, the degree of serial correlation of the cointegrating relationship, the condition of weak exogeneity and the signal-to-noise ratio. To this end, we consider 100 different DGPs and four increasing sample sizes. Besides the usual descriptive statistics, further information about the empirical distributions of interest by means of graphical and statistical methods are provided. In particular, we study size distortion of test statistics using P-value discrepancy plots and estimate the maximal moment exponent of the empirical distribution of estimators.

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File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1081/ETC-100104080&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.

Volume (Year): 20 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 61-84
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Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:20:y:2001:i:1:p:61-84

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Related research
Keywords: Cointegration; Monte Carlo experiment; Recursive variance; P-value discrepancy plots; Maximal moment exponent; JEL Classification: C13; C15;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 928, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Cappuccio, Nunzio & Lubian, Diego, 1996. "Triangular Representation and Error Correction Mechanism in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 409-15, May.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Apr 1989. [Downloadable!]
  9. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1994. "Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests," Working Papers 903, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eiji Kurozumi & Kazuhiko Hayakawa, 2006. "Asymptotic Properties of the Efficient Estimators for Cointegrating Regression Models with Serially Dependent Errors," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-197, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "This paper examines the significance of different fundamental regimes by applying various monetary models of the exchange rate to one of the politically most important exchange rates, the exchange rat," Ruhr Economic Papers 0134, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kim, In-Moo & Park, Joon Y., 2005. "Iterative Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Cointegrating Vectors," Working Papers 2005-02, Rice University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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