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Assessing the Behaviour of Non-Survey Methods for Constructing Regional Input-Output Tables through a Monte Carlo Simulation

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  • Andrea Bonfiglio
  • Francesco Chelli
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    Abstract

    The paper aims to analyse the behaviour of a battery of non-survey techniques of constructing regional I-O tables in estimating impact. For this aim, a Monte Carlo simulation, based on the generation of 'true' multiregional I-O tables, was carried out. By aggregating multi-regional I-O tables, national I-O tables were obtained. From the latter, indirect regional tables were derived through the application of various regionalisation methods and the relevant multipliers were compared with the 'true' multipliers using a set of statistics. Three aspects of the behaviour of the methods have been analysed: performances to reproduce 'true' multipliers, variability of simulation error and direction of bias. The results have demonstrated that the Flegg et al. Location Quotient (FLQ) and its augmented version (AFLQ) represent an effective improvement of conventional techniques based on the use of location quotients in both reproducing 'true' multipliers and generating more stable simulation errors. In addition, the results have confirmed the existence of a tendency of the methods to over/underestimate impact. In the cases of the FLQ and the AFLQ, this tendency depends on the value of the parameter δ.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09535310802344315
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Economic Systems Research.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 243-258

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:20:y:2008:i:3:p:243-258

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    Related research

    Keywords: Input-Output matrices; non-survey techniques; Monte Carlo simulation; regional policy;

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    Cited by:
    1. Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2013. "Estimation Errors in Input-Output Tables and Prediction Errors in Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-19, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    2. Andrea BONFIGLIO, 2008. "Evaluating Implications of Agricultural Policies in a Rural Region through a CGE Analysis," Working Papers 328, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Bonfiglio, Andrea & Esposti, Roberto, 2011. "Assessing the Economic Impact of an Agricultural Project in a Petroleum-Exporting Country. The Case of Palm Oil in the Republic of Congo," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114260, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Tobias Kronenberg, 2012. "Regional input-output models and the treatment of imports in the European System of Accounts (ESA)," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 175-191, September.
    5. José Belbute & António Caleiro & Gertrudes Guerreiro & Elsa Vaz & Ana Eduardo, 2012. "The input-output table for the Alentejo Region in Portugal," ERSA conference papers ersa12p387, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Anthony T Flegg & Yongming Huang & Timo Tohmo, 2013. "Cross-hauling and regional input-output tables: the case of the province of Hubei, China," Working Papers 20131310, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    7. Julia Kowalewski, 2013. "Inter-industrial Relations and Sectoral Employment Development in German Regions," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(4), pages 486-504, July.
    8. Marc Mueller & Emanuele Ferrari, 2012. "Social Accounting Matrices and Satellite Accounts for EU27 on NUTS2 Level (SAMNUTS2)," JRC-IPTS Working Papers JRC73088, Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre.
    9. Anthony T. Flegg & Timo Tohmo, 2013. "Estimating regional input coefficients and multipliers: The Use of the FLQ is not a Gamble," Working Papers 20131302, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    10. Anthony T. Flegg & Timo Tohmo, 2011. "A comment on Tobias Kronenberg's "Construction of regional input-output tables using nonsurvey methods: the role of cross-hauling"," Working Papers 20111111, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.

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