This paper provides preliminary estimates of the productivity impact of intelligent machine technology (IMT) and the rate of return to IMT research and development (R&D) over the next two decades. The paper adapts economists' traditional productivity growth model to enable the use of industrial experts' forecasts of a few key parameters of the model to form the estimates of productivity growth and rate of return. Respondents - from a sample of firms operating in IMT development and applications in the automotive, aerospace, and capital construction industries - anticipate that IMT will generate substantial productivity growth over the next two decades, and the estimated social rates of return to IMT R&D are substantial.
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