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A method for calculating the crowding-out effect in sport mega-event impact studies: The 2010 FIFA World Cup

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  • Holger Preuss

Abstract

Tourist expenditures constituted the largest part of the economic impact of South Africa's 2010 FIFA Football World Cup. However, limited air transport capacity and increased accommodation prices may have led to crowding-out effects. Until now, crowding-out could only be considered by using econometric modelling based on data of inbound arrival or accommodation statistics. This paper suggests a methodology for measuring the crowding-out effect precisely. It is based on the available statistics in South Africa and is applicable at province level. An important innovation is to distinguish crowding-out from time-switching effects. The paper explains the theoretical framework of crowding-out as part of impact measurement, discusses the technical problem of assessing crowding-out, and supplies formulae for calculating this effect. Although this is a study of the 2010 FIFA World Cup 2010 specifically, the methodology described here is appropriate for calculating the impacts of other mega-events.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Preuss, 2011. "A method for calculating the crowding-out effect in sport mega-event impact studies: The 2010 FIFA World Cup," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 367-385, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:deveza:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:367-385
    DOI: 10.1080/0376835X.2011.595995
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Impact of the World Cup," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Football Economics and Policy, chapter 11, pages 226-235, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    6. Swantje Allmers & Wolfgang Maennig, 2009. "Economic impacts of the FIFA Soccer World Cups in France 1998, Germany 2006, and outlook for South Africa 2010," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 500-519.
    7. Florian Hagn & Wolfgang Maennig, 2009. "Large sport events and unemployment: the case of the 2006 soccer World Cup in Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(25), pages 3295-3302.
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Coupe du Monde de la FIFA 2014 au Brésil : est-ce vraiment rentable ?
      by julien.moussavi@gmail.com (Julien Moussavi) in BS Initiative on 2014-06-05 13:28:44

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