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Terrorist Threats And Transitional Dynamics In An Overlapping Generations Model

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  • Jhy-Yuan Shieh
  • Jhy-Hwa Chen
  • Juin-Jen Chang
  • Ching-Chong Lai

Abstract

This paper incorporates the nature of terrorist threats into the Yarri (1965)-Blanchard (1985) model and uses it to discuss the transitional dynamics of consumption in response to an anticipated terrorist attack. It is shown that if the terrorist attack is pre-announced (and hence anticipated) and the public is fully informed, short-term consumption may misadjust from its long-term level. Before the terrorist attacks actually take place, households may be motivated to increase (rather than decrease) their consumption as a temporary response. This result may explain the temporary phenomenon of the increased consumption of certain types of goods in the period following September 11.

Suggested Citation

  • Jhy-Yuan Shieh & Jhy-Hwa Chen & Juin-Jen Chang & Ching-Chong Lai, 2005. "Terrorist Threats And Transitional Dynamics In An Overlapping Generations Model," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 415-425.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:6:p:415-425
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690500115956
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    2. Lapan, Harvey E & Sandler, Todd, 1988. "To Bargain or Not to Bargain: That Is the Question," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 16-21, May.
    3. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
    4. Buiter, Willem H, 1984. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models: A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 665-680, May.
    5. Burmeister, Edwin, 1980. "On Some Conceptual Issues in Rational Expectations Modeling," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 800-816, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tilman Brück & Marie Karaisl & Friedrich Schneider, 2008. "A Survey on the Economics of Security: Final Report for the European Commission, Directorate-General for Justice, Freedom and Security," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 41, number pbk41, Enero-Abr.
    2. Marek Loužek, 2009. "Ekonomie bezpečnosti - jsou teroristé racionální? [Economics of security - are terrorists rational?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(2), pages 177-193.

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