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Valuing large engineering projects under uncertainty: private risk effects and real options

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  • Mahdi Mattar
  • Charles Cheah
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    Abstract

    In all large engineering projects, valuation constitutes an important step during the initial stage as each stakeholder assesses the prospect of his or her investment. The complexity of valuation increases dramatically in the face of uncertainty especially when the risks are dynamic and stochastic in nature. The usual classification in finance theory divides risks into either market or unique. In this research, a new notion of private risk is introduced. A private risk may either be correlated with the market or be unique, but in addition it represents a substantial portion of an investor's wealth and is not tradable due to agency costs or other strategic reasons. The principles of pricing would differ according to the treatment of these different types of risks. Methods that are currently in vogue for pricing private risks are first evaluated, followed by a study of the effect of private risks in real option problems. Through a classic oil and gas exploration and development example, it is demonstrated that the methods chosen for pricing private risks can lead to decisively different real option values, exercise strategies and development policies. Effectively, the difference in real option values can be interpreted as a form of private risk premium.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01446190600658818
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Construction Management and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 8 ()
    Pages: 847-860

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:24:y:2006:i:8:p:847-860

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    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RCME20

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    Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RCME20

    Related research

    Keywords: Decision analysis; private risk; real option; risk; valuation;

    References

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    1. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
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    7. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
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    10. Michael Garvin & Charles Cheah, 2004. "Valuation techniques for infrastructure investment decisions," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 373-383.
    11. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    12. S. Ping Ho & Liang Liu, 2002. "An option pricing-based model for evaluating the financial viability of privatized infrastructure projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 143-156.
    13. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
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    Cited by:
    1. João Adelino Ribeiro & Paulo Jorge Pereira & Elísio Brandão, 2013. "Volume Uncertainty in Construction Projects: a Real Options Approach," CEF.UP Working Papers 1309, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

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