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Modelling and predicting construction durations in Hong Kong public housing

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Chan
  • Mohan Kumaraswamy

Abstract

Construction time performance is provoking world-wide concern and discussion within the industry. This paper reports the results of a survey in the fourth stage of an investigation seeking to identify a set of significant variables influencing construction durations of projects in Hong Kong, the stage addressing the formulation of standard norms for overall construction durations of public housing projects by modelling the primary work packages in the building process, namely piling, pile caps/raft, superstructure, E&M services, finishes and their respective sequential start-start lag times, on the basis of the identified groups of critical factors. Data were collected from a sample of 56 standard 'Harmony' type domestic blocks of the Hong Kong Housing Authority; (the 'Harmony' series of block design having become popular for average quality public housing blocks in the 1990s, ranging from 30 to 40 storeys and containing about 16 residential units on each floor). These data were analysed through a series of multiple linear regression exercises that helped to establish the time prediction model. This model was then tested and validated using information from a further nine projects from the Housing Authority. Both the usefulness and shortcomings of the model are briefly presented and discussed. It is concluded that the model is applicable to the public housing industry in Hong Kong, and that the methodology used may be applied to develop similarly useful models in other subsectors, and in other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Chan & Mohan Kumaraswamy, 1999. "Modelling and predicting construction durations in Hong Kong public housing," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 351-362.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:17:y:1999:i:3:p:351-362
    DOI: 10.1080/014461999371556
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    Cited by:

    1. P. Velumani & N. V. N. Nampoothiri & M. Urbański, 2021. "A Comparative Study of Models for the Construction Duration Prediction in Highway Road Projects of India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, April.
    2. Wei Tong Chen & Ying-Hua Huang, 2006. "Approximately predicting the cost and duration of school reconstruction projects in Taiwan," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(12), pages 1231-1239.
    3. Yu Zhang & Eric J Miller, 2023. "Predicting housing construction period based on a cox proportional hazard model––an empirical study of housing completions in the greater Toronto and Hamilton area," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(6), pages 1624-1644, July.
    4. D. R. Ogunsemi & G. O. Jagboro, 2006. "Time-cost model for building projects in Nigeria," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 253-258.

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