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Survey of recent developments

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  • Arianto Patunru
  • Christian von Luebke

Abstract

Recent political developments are slowing reforms. The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) and the finance ministry find themselves entrapped in legal inquiries and political wrangling that seem intended to weaken their reforming zeal. KPK's effectiveness has been undermined by legislative changes and the arrests of three of its commissioners. Meanwhile, the costly bail-out of a small bank has provided an opportunity for attacks on leading reformers - Vice President Boediono and the Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani Indrawati. The president's diffident stance in both instances has played into the hands of the opposition and, although key reformers are likely to remain in office, the political imbroglio has nonetheless eroded confidence in the government. Year-on-year GDP growth recovered strongly to 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2009. Government spending has been the key driver, while household spending slowed and investment remained low. Both exports and imports have returned to modest growth. Although 2009 ended with low inflation, Bank Indonesia (BI) has set its target inflation rate for 2010 at double the rate it achieved in November. BI is likely to bow to populist demands to lower nominal interest rates rather than raising them somewhat to prevent inflation accelerating, even though its real policy rate has been consistent with significant acceleration of GDP growth. The 2009 budget outcomes confirm that the fiscal stimulus in response to the global financial crisis has been less than hoped for. As for 2010, high world oil prices will imply huge subsidies, given that the government is unwilling to increase domestic fuel and electricity prices commensurately. The president announced that virtually all the government's 'first 100 days' program targets have been met. However, half of the 'action plans' amounted to nothing more than issuing or announcing new regulations, plans, blueprints, guidelines, recommendations or policies, or simply preparing drafts of these. No real progress has been made in relation to the most urgent reforms, particularly on energy subsidies and labour market regulation. Realising that the whole population would benefit in net terms, the previous government signed the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) in November 2004. But just when the agreement was to take effect, strong resistance from business and parliamentarians emerged, leading to the government's decision to re-negotiate many tariffs with China. This is disappointing: failing to uphold its commitments under this long-standing agreement makes Indonesia appear unreliable as an economic partner.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 46 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 7-31

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Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:46:y:2010:i:1:p:7-31

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References

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  1. Kunal Sen & Liesbet Steer, 2005. "Survey of recent developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 279-304.
  2. Ross Mcleod, 2005. "Survey of recent developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 133-157.
  3. Hadi Soesastro & M. Chatib Basri, 2005. "The Political Economy of Trade Policy in Indonesia," Trade Working Papers 22033, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  4. J. Thomas Lindblad, 1997. "Survey of Recent Developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 3-33.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ross McLeod, 2002. "Toward Improved Monetary Policy in Indonesia," Departmental Working Papers 2002-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  2. Dionisius A. Narjoko & Raymond Atje, 2007. "The Effects of Agricultural Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda with Special Reference to the Asia Pacific Region: A Brief Survey," Working Papers 3207, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
  3. Basri, Muhammad Chatib, 2013. "A Tale of Two Crises: Indonesia’s Political Economy," Working Papers 57, JICA Research Institute.
  4. Dirk Baur & Renee Fry, 2006. "Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. Roger Montgomery & Sudarno Sumarto & Sulton Mawardi & Syaikhu Usman & Nina Toyamah & Vita Febriany & John Strain, 2002. "Deregulation Of Indonesia'S Interregional Agricultural Trade," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 93-117.
  6. Matsumoto, Makiko & Verick, Sher, 2011. "Employment trends in Indonesia over 1996-2009 : casualization of the labour market during an era of crises, reforms and recovery," ILO Working Papers 466252, International Labour Organization.
  7. Cassing, James H., 2000. "Economic policy and political culture in Indonesia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 159-171, March.
  8. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Ahmad Komarulzaman & Muhamad Purnagunawan & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2013. "Growth, Poverty and Labor Market Rigidity in Indonesia: A General Equilibrium Investigation," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201304, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jan 2013.
  9. Ross McLeod, 2004. "Dealing with bank system failure: Indonesia, 1997-2003," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 95-116.
  10. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2005. "The Indian Ocean Tsunami: Economic Impact, Disaster Management and Lessons," Departmental Working Papers 2005-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  11. Oey, Mayling & Dharmaputra, Nick G, 1998. "The impact of the economic crisis on women workers in Indonesia : social and gender dimensions," ILO Working Papers 334072, International Labour Organization.
  12. Dionisius Narjoko & Hal Hill, 2006. "Winners and Losers during a Deep Economic Crisis: Firm-level Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing," Departmental Working Papers 2006-13, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  13. Ross Mcleod, 2005. "The struggle to regain effective government under democracy in Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 367-386.
  14. Ross H McLeod, 2003. "Dealing with Bank System Failure: Indonesia, 1997-2002," Departmental Working Papers 2003-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  15. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2007. "Searching for Equitable Energy Pricing Reform for Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200701, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2007.
  16. Anne Booth, 2005. "The evolving role of the central government in economic planning and policy making in Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 197-219.
  17. Silvey, Rachel & Elmhirst, Rebecca, 2003. "Engendering Social Capital: Women Workers and Rural-Urban Networks in Indonesia's Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 865-879, May.
  18. Siregar, Reza Y., 2002. "Interest Rate Policy And Its Implication On The Banking Restructuring Programs In Indonesia During The 1997-Financial Crisis: An Empirical Investigation," EIJS Working Paper Series 154, The European Institute of Japanese Studies.

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