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Nexus between economic sanctions and inflation: a case study in Iran

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  • Hamidreza Ghorbani Dastgerdi
  • Zarinah Binti Yusof
  • Muhammad Shahbaz

Abstract

Conventional studies have applied dummy variables to analyse the relationship between economic sanctions and inflation while we construct an index which is called Trade-Financial Sanctions (TF index). TF Index is a liner combination of indices which includes trade openness and foreign investment by applying the principal component model. Through the TF index and market exchange rate the impact of economic sanctions on inflation is analysed in the three phases of sanctions; free sanctions, heavy sanctions, and light sanctions. The results illustrate that the TF index decreases inflation when the Iran’s economy experiences free sanctions or light sanctions relative to when the economy is in heavy sanctions. Heavy sanctions create instability in the market exchange rates and widening the gap between the market and the official exchange rates. Furthermore, economic sanctions increase expected inflation among the people and drive higher inflation. Therefore, these results suggest that the government should work more seriously to solve the main obstacles of trade and investment inflows imposed by the economic sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamidreza Ghorbani Dastgerdi & Zarinah Binti Yusof & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2018. "Nexus between economic sanctions and inflation: a case study in Iran," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(49), pages 5316-5334, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:49:p:5316-5334
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1486988
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    Cited by:

    1. Nakhli, Seyyed Reza & Rafat, Monireh & Dastjerdi, Rasul Bakhshi & Rafei, Meysam, 2021. "Oil sanctions and their transmission channels in the Iranian economy: A DSGE model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Magda Kandil & Ida A. Mirzaie, 2021. "Macroeconomic policies and the Iranian economy in the era of sanctions," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 78-98, January.
    3. Zarepour, Zahra & Wagner, Natascha, 2022. "Cash instead of subsidy: Assessing the impact of the iranian energy subsidy reform on households," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Iman Cheratian & Saleh Goltabar & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Survival Strategies under Sanctions: Firm-Level Evidence from Iran," CESifo Working Paper Series 9568, CESifo.
    5. Somayeh Kokabisaghi & Mohammadesmaeil Ezazi & Reza Tehrani & Nourmohammad Yaghoubi, 2019. "Sanction or Financial Crisis? An Artificial Neural Network-Based Approach to model the impact of oil price volatility on Stock and industry indices," Papers 1912.04015, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    6. Zarei, Samira, 2020. "Analyzing the Asymmetric Effects of Inflation and Exchange Rate Misalignments on the Petrochemical Stock index: The Case of Iran," MPRA Paper 99101, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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