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Predictability of sustainable investments and the role of uncertainty: evidence from a non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos Antonakakis
  • Vassilios Babalos
  • Clement Kyei

Abstract

In this article, we examine sustainable investments returns predictability based on the U.S. Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) and a wide set of uncertainty and financial distress indicators for the period 2002:01–2014:12. To this end, we employ a novel non-parametric causality-in-quantile approach that captures non-linearities in returns distribution. Based on our findings we conclude that the aggregate economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indicator and some components have predictive ability for real returns of the U.S. sustainable investments index. Moreover, if we split our sample to before and after the global financial crisis our results suggest that predictors carry causal information for real returns only in the after-crisis period. Finally, some marginal evidence of predictability from sovereign debt is also observed at the lower and upper ends of the conditional distribution of the real returns of sustainable investments. Our results might entail policy implications for investors and market authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis & Vassilios Babalos & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Predictability of sustainable investments and the role of uncertainty: evidence from a non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(48), pages 4655-4665, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:48:p:4655-4665
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1161724
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2021. "Do U.S. and Japanese uncertainty shocks play important roles in affecting transition mechanisms of Japanese stock market?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Mirza, Nawazish & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Ha Nguyen, Thi Thu & Arfaoui, Nadia & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2023. "Are sustainable investments interdependent? The international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2017. "Oil price shocks and policy uncertainty: New evidence on the effects of US and non-US oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 536-546.
    4. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2017. "Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 344-359.
    5. Mansi Jain & Gagan Deep Sharma & Mrinalini Srivastava, 2019. "Can Sustainable Investment Yield Better Financial Returns: A Comparative Study of ESG Indices and MSCI Indices," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Nicholas Apergis & Vassilios Babalos & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Are there Really Long-Run Diversification Benefits from Sustainable Investments?," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 18(2), pages 141-163, September.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Do Sustainable Stocks Offer Diversification Benefits for Conventional Portfolios? An Empirical Analysis of Risk Spillovers and Dynamic Correlations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, October.
    8. Felipe Arias Fogliano de Souza Cunha & Erick Meira de Oliveira & Renato J. Orsato & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira & Rodrigo Goyannes Gusmão Caiado, 2020. "Can sustainable investments outperform traditional benchmarks? Evidence from global stock markets," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 682-697, February.
    9. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Wafa Ghardallou & Nasir Ahmad & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Does effect of risk and uncertainties on US sectoral returns differ across different investment horizons and market conditions," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 1-49, February.
    10. de Oliveira, Erick Meira & Cunha, Felipe Arias Fogliano de Souza & Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Maçaira, Paula Medina, 2020. "On the effects of uncertainty measures on sustainability indices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Ramiz ur Rehman & Muhammad Zain ul Abidin & Rizwan Ali & Safwan Mohd Nor & Muhammad Akram Naseem & Mudassar Hasan & Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, 2021. "The Integration of Conventional Equity Indices with Environmental, Social, and Governance Indices: Evidence from Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-27, January.
    12. Yonghong JIANG & Juan MENG & He NIE, 2018. "Visiting the Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks - Economic Growth Relationship: Wavelet-based Granger-Causality in Quantiles Approac," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 80-94, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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