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Taiwan's trade imbalance and exchange rate revisited

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  • Chia-Hung Sun
  • Yi-Bin Chiu

Abstract

This article applies the recently developed econometric method of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to re-examine the relationship between the exchange rate and bilateral trade imbalance for Taiwan and its several trading partners: China, Hong Kong, the US, Japan, South Korea and Malaysia. The implication of this issue is critical to policy makers, particularly after China and Taiwan joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in late 2001 and early 2002, respectively. The empirical evidence shows a stable long-run relationship of bilateral trade balance and real exchange rate between Taiwan and its trading partners except Japan. Other findings indicate that except for the US, there is no specific pattern supporting the J-curve phenomenon for these trading partners.

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  • Chia-Hung Sun & Yi-Bin Chiu, 2010. "Taiwan's trade imbalance and exchange rate revisited," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 917-922.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:7:p:917-922
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701720937
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    2. Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Javed Ahmad Bhat, 2021. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of India: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(1), pages 71-88, February.
    3. Fišera, Boris & Horváth, Roman, 2022. "Are exchange rates less important for trade in a more globalized world? Evidence for the new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    4. Artatrana Ratha & Eungmin Kang, 2014. "Asian Financial Crisis And Korean Trade Dynamics," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 862-877, October.
    5. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    6. Bi-Huei Tsai, 2017. "Predicting the competitive relationships of industrial production between Taiwan and China using Lotka–Volterra model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(25), pages 2428-2442, May.
    7. Dene T. Hurley & Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2018. "An Investigation of China‐U.S. Bilateral Trade and Exchange Rate Changes Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 162-179, June.

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