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What would Nelson and Plosser find had they used panel unit root tests?

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  • Christophe Hurlin

Abstract

In this study, we systemically apply nine recent panel unit root tests to the same 14 macroeconomic and financial series as those considered in the seminal paper by Nelson and Plosser (1982). The data covers OECD countries from 1950 to 2003. Our results clearly point out the difficulty that applied econometricians would face when they want to get a simple and clear-cut diagnosis with panel unit root tests. We confirm the fact that panel methods must be very carefully used for testing unit roots in macroeconomic or financial panels. More precisely, we find mitigated results under the cross-sectional independence assumption, since the unit root hypothesis is rejected for many macroeconomic variables. When international cross-correlations are taken into account, conclusions depend on the specification of these cross-sectional dependencies. Two groups of tests can be distinguished. The first group tests are based on a dynamic factor structure or an error component model. In this case, the nonstationarity of common factors (international business cycles or growth trends) is not rejected, but the results are less clear with respect to idiosyncratic components. The second group tests are based on more general specifications. Their results are globally more favourable to the unit root assumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (2010)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 1515-1531

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:12:p:1515-1531

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Cited by:
  1. Evangelia Papapetrou & Dimitrios Bakas, 2012. "Unemployment in Greece: evidence from Greek regions," Working Papers 146, Bank of Greece.
  2. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2009. "Does the real GDP per capita convergence hold in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa?," Working Papers hal-00422522, HAL.
  3. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "On the link between forward energy prices: A nonlinear panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1170-1175.
  4. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darne & Jean-François Hoarau, 2012. "Convergence of real per capita GDP within COMESA countries: A panel unit root evidence," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 53-71, August.
  5. Aviral Tiwari & Amrit Chaudhari & K. Suresh, 2012. "Are Asian Per Capita GDP Stationary? Evidence from First and Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 3-11, September.
  6. Dimelis, Sophia P. & Papaioannou, Sotiris K., 2011. "ICT growth effects at the industry level: A comparison between the US and the EU," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 37-50, March.
  7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pepin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2014. "A re-examination of real interest parity in CEECs using old and new generations of panel unit root tests," Papers 1403.3627, arXiv.org.
  8. Cuneyt KILIC & Yýlmaz BAYAR & Feyza ARICA, 2014. "Effects of Currency Unions on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: The European Economic and Monetary Union Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 8-15.
  9. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2012. "Will policies to promote renewable electricity generation be effective? Evidence from panel stationarity and unit root tests for 115 countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 15-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  10. Kiliç, Cuneyt & Arica, Feyza, 2014. "Economic Freedom, Inflation Rate and their Impact on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 160-176, March.
  11. Marcus Kappler, 2011. "Business Cycle Co-movement and Trade Intensity in the Euro Area: is there a Dynamic Link?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 231(2), pages 247-265, April.
  12. Mishra, Vinod & Sharma, Susan & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2318-2326, June.

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