On the predictive power of monetary exchange rate model: the case of the Malaysian ringgit/US dollar rate
AbstractThe predictive power of the monetary model for the Malaysian ringgit/US dollar (RM/USD) rate is analysed using quarterly data ending in 2006:Q3. We find compelling evidence of a long-run relationship between exchange rates and the economic fundamental determinant. Macroeconomic factors systematically affect the long-run movement of the RM/USD rate. Additionally, the RM/USD rate was overvalued by about 10% several quarters before the 1997 crisis; after the crisis, rates fluctuated close to the equilibrium value. The out-of-sample forecasts demonstrate that the monetary model outperforms the naive random walk model. The monetary and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) models do well at the four to eight quarters horizon.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 14 ()
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- Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Chin-Hong Puah, 2009.
"Monetary Model of Exchange Rate for Thailand: Long-run Relationship and Monetary Restrictions,"
Global Economic Review,
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- Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Puah, Chin-Hong, 2009. "Monetary Model of Exchange Rate for Thailand: Long-run Relationship and Monetary Restrictions," MPRA Paper 17715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lee, Chin & Law, Chee-Hong, 2013. "The Effects of Trade Openness on Malaysian Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 45185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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