Estimating a fiscal reaction function: the case of debt sustainability in Brazil
AbstractThis article reviews recent trends in fiscal performance in Brazil, estimates fiscal reaction functions for the consolidated public sector and different levels of government, and tests for the sustainability of the public debt dynamics. The empirical analysis, based on monthly data for the period 1995-2004, suggests that all levels of government react strongly to changes in indebtedness by adjusting their primary budget surplus targets. In addition, the central government appears to follow a spend-and-tax policy: changes in revenue are affected strongly by expenditure. About two-thirds of changes in primary spending are offset by higher revenue over the longer term. Institutions are also found to matter for fiscal sustainability. The responsiveness of the sub-national fiscal stance to indebtedness, as well as that of central government revenue to changes in primary spending, appears to have become stronger after 1998, when ceilings on indebtedness were introduced.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20
Other versions of this item:
- Luiz de Mello, 2005. "Estimating a Fiscal Reaction Function: The Case of Debt Sustainability in Brazil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 423, OECD Publishing.
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Luiz de Mello, 2007. "The Brazilian 'Tax War': The Case of Value-Added Tax Competition among the States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 544, OECD Publishing.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.