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Building confidence intervals for band-pass and Hodrick-Prescott filters: an application using bootstrapping

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  • Francisco Gallego
  • Christian Johnson

Abstract

This article generates innovative confidence intervals for two of the most popular de-trending methods: Hodrick-Prescott and band-pass filters. The confidence intervals are obtained using block-bootstrapping techniques for dependent data. GDP trend growth and output gap intervals for the G7 economies are used as examples. This new methodology increases the usefulness of these filters by overcoming the absence of confidence intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Gallego & Christian Johnson, 2005. "Building confidence intervals for band-pass and Hodrick-Prescott filters: an application using bootstrapping," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 741-749.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:7:p:741-749
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500048985
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    5. Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Learning about a shift in trend output: implications for monetary policy and inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. Miroslav Plašil, 2011. "Potenciální produkt, mezera výstupu a míra nejistoty spojená s jejich určením při použití Hodrick-Prescottova filtru [Potential Product, Output Gap and Uncertainty Rate Associated with Their Determ," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(4), pages 490-507.
    3. Siem Jan Koopman & Kai Ming Lee, 2005. "Measuring Asymmetric Stochastic Cycle Components in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-081/4, Tinbergen Institute.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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