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A time series model of fertility and female labour supply in the UK

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  • Robert McNown
  • Cristobal Ridao-Cano

Abstract

Multiple time series procedures suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to UK data on age-specific fertility rates, age-specific female labour force participation rates, and women's and men's wages. Cointegration tests establish the existence of two long-run equilibrium relations, identified as a fertility relation and a labour supply equation, for each age group. Maximum likelihood estimates of these equations are consistent with the new home economics model of fertility, and tests of Granger-causality show evidence of extensive feedback among the variables.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0003684042000307021
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 521-532

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:5:p:521-532

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  1. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  3. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 2002. "Determining the Order of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 18-24, January.
  4. Tzannatos, Zafiris & Symons, James, 1989. "An Economic Approach to Fertility in Britain since 1860," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 121-38.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
  6. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  7. De Cooman, Eric & Ermisch, John F & Joshi, Heather, 1985. "The Next Birth and the Labour Market: A Dynamic Model of Births in England and Wales," CEPR Discussion Papers 37, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2010. "Female labor force participation and total fertility rates in the OECD: New evidence from panel cointegration and Granger causality testing," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 48-64, January.
  2. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos, 2013. "The causal relationship between female labor supply and fertility in the USA: updated evidence via a time series multi-horizon approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 109-145, January.
  3. Erik de Regt, 2009. "Hourly wages and working time in the Dutch market sector 1962-1995," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 765-778.
  4. Vinod Mishra & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2006. "The Relationship Between Female Labour Force Participation And Fertility In G7 Countries: Evidence From Panel Cointegration And Granger Causality," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 13/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  5. Grace H.Y. Lee & Sing Ping Lee, 2013. "Childcare Availability, Fertility And Female Labor Force Participation In Japan," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 36-13, Monash University, Department of Economics.

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