Leaving EMU: a real options perspective
AbstractThe real option implicit in a country's decision of whether to leave an existing monetary union when there is uncertainty over the future benefits of this move is examined. The theoretical model used is calibrated for the current Euro-12 area by proxying policymakers' inflation preferences with unemployment rates and debt-to-GDP ratios. A robust group of countries is observed that would choose to remain within EMU consisting of Belgium, Finland, Greece and Italy; France and Spain loosely also belong to this core. Only Luxembourg would robustly want to leave EMU; Ireland and The Netherlands, however, complement that core closely.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 13 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Frank Strobel, 2004. "Leaving EMU: a real options perspective," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 83, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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