Modelling EU tobacco policy reform
AbstractSmoking and tobacco use have acquired the dimensions of an epidemic. Recently, a decision by the European Parliament due to health concerns, calls for an elimination of production subsidies within five years. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the economic implications of the reduction of protection levels and to examine whether this policy change will act as an effective tool for less consumption. To this end, two scenarios are examined; namely, a Baseline Scenario, which assumes continuation of current policy measures, and a Policy Scenario where production support is eliminated. According to the results by 2010, EU tobacco consumption in the Baseline scenario is expected to show a modest decline and a more significant decrease in the Policy scenario. In addition, the EU self-sufficiency ratio is projected to decrease in the Policy scenario by almost 14% compared to the Baseline. Therefore, with increasing liberalization of international trade, reducing EU tobacco supply would mostly shift tobacco production to other, mainly, developing countries. Therefore, public policy that aims to reduce tobacco use may need to focus on demand.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 19 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
- H. Guyomard & L. P. Mahé & C. Tavéra & T. Trochet, 1991. "Technical Change And Ec-Us Agricultural Trade Liberalisation," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 119-137.
- Kapuscinski, Cezary A. & Warr, Peter G., 1999.
"Estimation of Armington elasticities: an application to the Philippines,"
Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 257-278, April.
- Cezary A Kapuscinski & Peter G Warr, 1996. "Estimation of Armington Elasticities: An Application to the Philippines," Departmental Working Papers 1996-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Cezary A. Kapuscinski & Prof Peter G. Warr, 1996. "Estimation of Armington Elasticities: An Application to the Philippines," Trade and Development 96/8, Australian National University, Department of Economics.
- Gregmar Galinato & Aaron Olanie & Jon Yoder, 2013. "The Trade and Health Effects of Tobacco Regulations," Working Papers 2013-09, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.