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Instability in cointegration regressions: a brief review with an application to money demand in Portugal

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Author Info
Vasco J. C. R. De A. Gabriel
Artur C. B. Da Silva Lopes
Luis C. Nunes

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Abstract

This study addresses some modelling questions related to the possibility of structural change in models with nonstationary variables. Focusing on cointegration issues, some methodological aspects are discussed, attempting to integrate coherently the several steps of the modelling strategy. These range from unit root to cointegration testing and to testing for instability in the cointegration vector. An empirical example with Portuguese data tries to illustrate the usefulness of this approach, where a simple money demand function is estimated using an error-correction model (ECM). If a break is explicitly allowed in the cointegration vector the forecasting performance of the ECM improves.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 8 (January)
Pages: 893-900
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:8:p:893-900

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  1. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-48, November.
  3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
    Other versions:
  4. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
  5. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:95-115 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
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  7. Hao, K., 1996. "Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Regression Models: Some Comparisons and Generalizations," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/96, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  8. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kang Hao, 1996. "Testing for structural change in cointegrated regression models: some comparisons and generalizations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 401-429. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March. [Downloadable!]
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Apr 1989. [Downloadable!]
  13. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Jul 1988. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Amir Kia, 2006. "Economic policies and demand for money: evidence from Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1389-1407, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "The effect of regime shifts on the long-run relationships for Swedish money demand," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(15), pages 1731-1736, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2005. "Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," DEA Working Papers 10, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Harrison Fell, 2008. "Rights-Based Management and Alaska Pollock Processors' Supply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 579-592, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Daniel G. Garcés Díaz, 2003. "Agregados monetarios, inflación y actividad económica en México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 18(1), pages 37-78. [Downloadable!]
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