This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Twin Deficits: Apparition or Reality?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Leachman, Lori L
Francis, Bill
Abstract

This paper uses cointegration and multicointegration analysis to explore the issue of twin deficits for the USA in the post-World War II period. The results suggest that prior to 1974 the systems of fiscal and foreign sector variables exhibit multicointegration. These results do not rule out short-run correlations between government deficits and external deficits. However, they do preclude the possibility that the twin deficit phenomenon describes a long-run structural relationship in the post-World War II, Bretton Woods era. In the more recent period, 1974 forward, neither system exhibits evidence of multi/cointegration. But, weak evidence of cointegration is present between fiscal deficits and trade deficits. Error correction models suggest that causality runs from internal to external deficits in the dynamic adjustment process. This evidence provides some support for the notion that more recently fiscal deficits may have contributed to external deficits. In combination with the results from the early sub-period, the evidence indicates that to the extent the twin deficit relationship exists, it is time specific and weak. Copyright 2002 by Taylor and Francis Group

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/openurl.asp?genre=article&issn=0003-6846&volume=34&issue=9&spage=1121
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2002)
Issue (Month): 9 (June)
Pages: 1121-32
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:9:p:1121-32

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/routledge/00036846.html

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/subscription.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hsiao-chuan Chang, 2004. "Budget Balance And Trade Balance:Kin Or Strangers. A Case Study Of Taiwan," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 893, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vanessa Berenguer Rico & Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre, 2006. "Testing for multicointegration in panel data with common factors," Working Papers in Economics 160, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "Multicointegration in US consumption data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 819-833, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Ahmed M. Khalid, 2005. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Using VARs and Variance Decomposition," International Finance 0504001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alberto Bagnai, 2006. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 137-155, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chowdhury, Khorshed & Saleh, Ali Salman, 2007. "Testing the Keynesian Proposition of Twin Deficits in the Presence of Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from Sri Lanka after War: the case of a bridge too far?," Economics Working Papers wp07-09, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Tuck Cheong Tang & Evan Lau, 2009. "General Equilibrium Perception on Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Evidence for the U.S," Monash Economics Working Papers 09/09, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship: A Panel Data Diagnostic," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: Are there Reasons for Concern? An Empirical Study," Monash Economics Working Papers 11/09, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Lau, E. & Baharumshah, A. Z., 2006. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis in SEACEN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis of Relationships between Public Budget and Current Account Deficits," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can create a compilation of all publications of a group of people, say alumni of a program, your students or memers of an association.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-5.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.