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Output Dynamics of the G7 Countries--Stochastic Trends and Cyclical Movements

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Cheung, Yin-Wong
Westermann, Frank

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Abstract

Using a time series framework, the paper studies the interactions of the annual real per capita GDP data of the G-7 countries. Evidence is found of six common nonstationary processes behind the international output dynamics. In addition, there is evidence for the existence of a common business cycle among these countries. The trend and cycle components of each output series are obtained with a procedure that accounts for the presence of both the common nonstationary and cyclical factors. It is found that the relative variability and the correlation of the trend and cycle components are not similar across the G-7 countries. Copyright 2002 by Taylor and Francis Group

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2002)
Issue (Month): 18 (December)
Pages: 2239-47
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:18:p:2239-47

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  2. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. repec:att:wimass:1919983 is not listed on IDEAS
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  5. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lucke, Bernd, 1998. "Productivity shocks in a sectoral real business cycle model for West Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 311-327, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
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  15. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  16. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "International Evidence on the Persistence of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1994. "Aggregate output dynamics in the twentieth century," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 15-22, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2001. "Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Tsangyao Chang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Chi-Wei Su, 2006. "Is per capita real GDP stationary in African countries? Evidence from panel SURADF test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 1003-1008, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2006. "Measuring the Sources of Cyclical Fluctuations in the G7 Economies," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp06028, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
  4. Altissimo, Filippo & Bassanetti, Antonio & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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