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How Useful Are the Forecasts of Intergovernmental Agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the Consensus

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Batchelor, Roy

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Abstract

This study compares the accuracy and information content of economic forecasts for G7 countries made in the 1990s by the OECD and IMF. The benchmarks for comparison are the average forecasts of private sector economists published by Consensus Economics. With few exceptions, the private sector forecasts are less biased and more accurate in terms of mean absolute error and root mean square error. Formal tests show these differences are statistically significant for forecasts of real growth and production, less so for forecasts of inflation and unemployment. Overall, there appears little information in the OECD and IMF forecasts that could be used to reduce significantly the error in the private sector forecasts. Copyright 2001 by Taylor and Francis Group

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 225-35
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:2:p:225-35

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  3. Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2005. "An Overview of European Economic Indicators: Great Variety of Data on the Euro Area, Need for More Extensive Coverage of the New EU Member States," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 66-89, November. [Downloadable!]
  4. Khoon Lek Goh & Daniel Lawrence, 2006. "Treasury’s Forecasting Performance: A Head-to-Head Comparison," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/10, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bryan Campbell & Steve Murphy, 2006. "The Recent Performance of the Canadian Forecasting Industry," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 32(1), pages 23-40, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2006. "Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: Methods, Performance and Market Impacts over 1970 - 2005," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37514, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. [Downloadable!]
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