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Exchange rate volatility and the role of regional currency linkages: the ASEAN case

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  • Dene Hurley
  • Rolando Santos

Abstract

As the economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have moved towards closer economic ties and trade integration in recent years, the establishment of exchange rate stability is becoming an important regional policy concern, particularly in the wake of the Asian currency crisis of 1997. This paper examines the exchange rate volatility of the currencies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand between 1974 and 1999. Using variance decomposition (VDC) methods and impulse response functions, which are VAR-related estimation techniques, the study also investigates the regional currency linkages which may have played a role in transmitting exchange rate fluctuations. The results indicate that, in spite of the adoption of the crawling peg exchange regime following the breakup of the Bretton Woods system, all of the five ASEAN currencies experienced volatility, with the Indonesian rupiah posting the highest volatility level. The switch to de facto pegging against the US dollar in the mid-1980s helped to stabilize all ASEAN currencies with the exception of the Malaysian ringgit. Each of the five currencies became more susceptible to instabilities in other ASEAN currencies in the post-1985 period. Consistent with the experience of the Asian currency crisis, the Thai baht was the main channel through which regional currency fluctuations were transmitted.

Suggested Citation

  • Dene Hurley & Rolando Santos, 2001. "Exchange rate volatility and the role of regional currency linkages: the ASEAN case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(15), pages 1991-1999.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:15:p:1991-1999
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840010023779
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    1. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Is pegging the exchange rate a cure for inflation? East Asian experiences," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov3.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marinakis, Yorgos D. & White, Reilly & Walsh, Steven T., 2020. "Lotka–Volterra signals in ASEAN currency exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    2. Guiling Wang & Degang Yang & Fuqiang Xia & Yannan Zhao, 2016. "Study on Industrial Integration Development of the Energy Chemical Industry in Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi Urban Agglomeration, Xinjiang, NW China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-11, July.
    3. Ain Shahrier, Nur, 2022. "Contagion effects in ASEAN-5 exchange rates during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick & Robert Brooks & Samantha Hum & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2011. "Sovereign rating changes and realized volatility in Asian foreign exchange markets during the Asian crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 997-1003.
    5. Lu, Changrong & Li, Jiaxiang & Liu, Lian & Yu, Fandi, 2023. "Spillover effect of the RMB and Non-USD currencies after the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence captured from 30-minute high frequency data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 527-552.

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