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Convergence in Brazil: Recent Trends and Long-Run Prospects

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Author Info
Ferreira, Afonso

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Abstract

This paper applies to the analysis of the interstate income distribution in Brazil a set of techniques that have been widely used in the current empirical literature on growth and convergence. Usual measures of dispersion in the interstate income distribution (the coefficient of variation and Theil's index) suggest that sigma-convergence was an unequivocal feature of the regional growth experience in Brazil, between 1970 and 1986. After 1986, the process of convergence seems, however, to have slowed down almost to a halt. A standard growth model is shown to fit the regional data well and to explain a substantial amount of the variation in growth rates, providing estimates of the speed of (conditional) beta-convergence of approximately 3% p.a. Different estimates of the long-run distribution implied by the recent growth trends point towards further reductions in the interstate income inequality, but also suggest that the relative per capita incomes of a significant number of states and the number of "very poor" and "poor" states were, in 1995, already quite close to their steady-state values. Copyright 2000 by Taylor and Francis Group

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (March)
Pages: 479-89
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:4:p:479-89

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  1. repec:dia:wpaper:dt200511 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Philippe De Vreyer & Sandrine Mesplé-Somps & Gilles Spielvogel, 2005. "Spatial externalities between Brazilian municipios and their neighbours," ERSA conference papers ersa05p573, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  3. DOBSON, Steve & RAMLOGAN, Carlyn & STROBL, Eric, 2003. "Why do rates of convergence differ ? A meta-regression analysis," CORE Discussion Papers 2003020, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  4. Carvalho, Alexandre & Lall, Somik V. & Timmins, Christopher, 2006. "Regional subsidies and industrial prospects of lagging regions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3843, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rosa Fontes & Elydia Silva & Luis F. Alves & Geraldo E.S. Júnior, 2005. "Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Some Empirical Evidence from Minas Gerais State, Brazil," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 128, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. José Benedito Ortiz Neto & Armando Dalla Costa, 2006. "A Petrobrás e a exploração de Petróleo Offshore no Brasil: um approach evolucionário," Working Papers 0041, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Tatiane Almeida de Menezes & Raul da Mota Silveira Neto & Carlos Roberto Azzoni, 2006. "Demografia, Ciclo De Vida E Dinâmica Da Desigualdade Regional De Renda No Brasil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 28, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mark J.Holmes, 2006. "Regime-Dependent output convergence in Latin America," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1 Year 20), pages 65-81, June. [Downloadable!]
  9. Elias Soukiazis & Tulio Cravo, 2006. "Human Capital As a Conditioning Factor to the Convergence Process Among the Brazilian States," ERSA conference papers ersa06p50, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  10. Philippe De Vreyer & Gilles Spielvogel, 2005. "Spatial externalities between Brazilian municipios and their neighbours," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 123, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  11. Farhad Noorbakhsh, . "The Dynamics of Spatial Inequality and Polarisation in Iran," Working Papers 2003_17, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile & Luciana Rosas, 2004. "Especialización, Tecnología Y Crecimiento En El Modelo Ricardiano," Working Papers 004, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Leite, Phillippe G. & Ravallion, Martin, 2007. "Poverty reduction without economic growth ? explaining Brazil's poverty dynamics, 1985-2004," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4431, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. João Luis Brasil Gondim & Flávio Ataliba Barreto, 2004. "O Uso Do Núcleo Estocástico Para Identificação De Clubes De Convergência Entre Estados E Municípios Brasileiros," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 053, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  15. Guilherme Mendes Resende & Lízia de Figueiredo, 2008. "Economic Growth Of Minas Gerais: A Quantile Regression Approach Between 1980 And 2000," Anais do XIII Seminário sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 13th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais], in: Anais do XIII Seminário sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 13th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais] Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. [Downloadable!]
  16. Elydia Silva & Rosa Fontes & Luiz Fernando Alves, 2004. "Análise Das Disparidades Regionais Em Minas Gerais," Anais do XI Seminário sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 11th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais], in: João Antonio de Paula & et alli (ed.), Anais do XI Seminário sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 11th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais] Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. [Downloadable!]
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