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Testing for rational expectations in the UK National Lottery

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Author Info

  • David Forrest
  • O. David Gulley
  • Robert Simmons

Abstract

The concept of rational expectations has typically been assumed, without testing, in the analysis of consumer demand and market efficiency in betting markets, including betting on lottery games. Lottery games offer an excellent opportunity to test how participants process the information that is available to them. Using the UK National Lottery as our particular case, we find that participants, in general, efficiently process available information. Specifically, they act as if they can, on average, forecast the level of sales for a given drawing.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000368400322741
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 315-326

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:3:p:315-326

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Cited by:
  1. Humphreys, Brad & Perez, Levi, 2011. "Lottery Participants and Revenues: An International Survey of Economic Research on Lotteries," Working Papers 2011-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  2. Forrest, David & Gulley, O. David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Elasticity of Demand for UK National Lottery Tickets," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 4), pages 853-64, December.
  3. Jen-Hung Wang & Larry Tzeng & Junji Tien, 2006. "Willingness to pay and the demand for lotto," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1207-1216.
  4. Chin-Tsai Lin & Chien-Hua Lai, 2006. "Substitute effects between Lotto and Big Lotto in Taiwan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 655-658.
  5. David Paton & Donald S. Siegel & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2003. "Taxation and the Demand for Gambling: New Evidence from the United Kingdom," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0306, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  6. Brad Humphreys & Levi Perez, 2012. "Network externalities in consumer spending on lottery games: evidence from Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 929-945, June.

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