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Lag length selection in vector autoregressive models: symmetric and asymmetric lags

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  • Omer Ozcicek
  • W. DOUGLAS McMILLIN

Abstract

This study used Monte Carlo simulations to study the performance of alternative lag selection criterion for symmetric lag and asymmetric lag vector autoregressive models. Lag models with short lags and with long lags were considered. The alternative criteria considered were the AIC, SIC, Phillips' Posterior Information Criterion, and Keating's modification of the AIC and SIC. The alternative criteria were evaluated by computing the frequency distribution of lags selected, by computing the out-of-sample forecasting performance of models with lags selected using each criterion, and by comparing the ability of models with lags selected using each criterion to mimic the 'true' impulse response functions for the lag model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 517-524

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:31:y:1999:i:4:p:517-524

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Cited by:
  1. Frank Browne & David Doran, 2005. "Do equity index industry groups improve forecasts of inflation and production? A US analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(15), pages 1801-1812.
  2. Albis, Manuel Leonard F. & Mapa, Dennis S., 2014. "Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates in Asymmetric Vector Autoregressive (AVAR) Models," MPRA Paper 55902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. ""Ripple Effects” and Forecasting Home Prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," Working Papers 0902, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  4. George Vamvoukas, 2002. "Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in a Small Open," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 31-36.
  5. Gupta, Abhay, 2004. "Comparing Bank Lending Channel in India and Pakistan," MPRA Paper 9281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Keating, John W., 2000. "Macroeconomic Modeling with Asymmetric Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-28, January.

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