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Asymmetries and nonlinearities in Italian macroeconomic fluctuations

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  • Luca Stanca

Abstract

This paper reports the results of an empirical investigation of business cycle asymmetries in the Italian economy. Macroeconomic time series, both annual post-Unity and quarterly post-world war II, are subjected to nonlinearity and asymmetry tests. The dynamics of recessions and expansions are then modelled with threshold autoregressive and Markov-switching models. The paper shows that allowing for two regimes is sufficient to account for the finding of neglected nonlinearity. The results indicate that business cycle asymmetries can provide both an intuitive economic interpretation and a parsimonious representation of nonlinearities in macroeconomic time series.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000368499324192
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 483-491

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:31:y:1999:i:4:p:483-491

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Cited by:
  1. Mark J. Holmes & Maghrebi Nabil, 2002. "Non-Linearities, Regime Switching and the Relationship Between Asian Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 121-139.
  2. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2006. "Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002148, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Hsiou-Wei William Lin & Rau Hsiu-hua, 2005. "The performance of the Markov-switching model on business cycle identification revisited," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 513-520.
  4. Sella Lisa, 2008. "Old and New Spectral Techniques for Economic Time Series," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 200809, University of Turin.
  5. Jane Binner & Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Thomas Elger & Alicia Gazely & Andrew Mullineux, 2005. "A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks: an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 665-680.
  6. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  7. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.

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