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Vector autoregression, cointegration and causality: testing for causes of the British industrial revolution

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  • Les Oxley
  • David Greasley

Abstract

The existence, timing, and possible causes of the British industrial revolution are considered by investigating the time series properties of industrial production and various explanatory variables. Utilising two types of robust cointegration-based causality tests we argue that domestic forces, notably technological progress, shaped the industrial revolution, whereas overseas trade expansion was mainly a consequence of industrial growth. Results from Granger-type VAR tests are contrasted with those of Toda and Phillips (Working paper 91-07, University of Western Australia, 1991b), where the latter manifest some of the potential problems raised by the authors when applied to a data set of this type. An understanding of the possible causes of the first industrial revolution may shed more general light on the forces promoting industrialization and growth. To the extent that the first industrial revolution offers a template, exports appear not to provide a simple pathway to industrialization.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 30 (1998)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 1387-1397

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:10:p:1387-1397

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Cited by:
  1. Jakob B. Madsen & James B. Ang & Rajabrata Banerjee, 2010. "Four Centuries of British Economic Growth: The Roles of Technology and Population," CAMA Working Papers 2010-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2013. "Business cycles and economic crisis in Greece (1960–2011): A long run equilibrium analysis in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 804-816.
  3. Ana María Cuadros Ramos, 2000. "Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de causalidad para México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 15(1), pages 37-64.
  4. Shankar Prasad Acharya, 2009. "Verification of Causality through VAR and Intervention Analysis: Econometric Modeling on Budget Deficit and Trade Deficit in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 21, pages 1, April.
  5. Rajabrata Banerjee, 2012. "Population Growth and Endogenous Technological Change: Australian Economic Growth in the Long Run," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(281), pages 214-228, 06.
  6. Greasley, David & Oxley, Les, 2007. "Patenting, intellectual property rights and sectoral outputs in Industrial Revolution Britain, 1780-1851," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 340-354, August.
  7. David I. Stern, 2011. "From Correlation to Granger Causality," Crawford School Research Papers 1113, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Shanthini, Rajaratnam, 2007. "Fossil fuel based CO2 emissions, economic growth, and world crude oil price nexus in the United States," MPRA Paper 29574, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Feb 2011.
  9. Banerjee, Rajabrata, 2011. "The US-UK productivity gap in the twentieth century: a race between technology and population," MPRA Paper 30889, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. David Grreasley, 2010. "Cliometrics and Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory and Applications," Working Papers in Economics 10/56, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  11. James B. Ang & Rajabrata Banerjee & Jakob B. Madsen, 2010. "Innovation, Technological Change And The British Agricultural Revolution," CAMA Working Papers 2010-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  12. Ongono, Patrice, 2009. "Consommation d'énergie et performances économiques au Cameroun
    [Energy consumption and economic performance in Cameroon]
    ," MPRA Paper 23525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Ghosh, Sajal, 2002. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 125-129, January.

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