Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Examining the ability of core inflation to capture the overall trend of total inflation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Heather L. R. Tierney

Abstract

This article examines whether core inflation is able to predict the overall trend of total inflation using real-time data in a parametric and nonparametric framework. Specifically, two sample periods and five in-sample forecast horizons in two measures of inflation, which are the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), are used in the exclusions-from-core inflation persistence model. This article finds that core inflation is only able to capture the overall trend of total inflation for the 12-quarter in-sample forecast horizon using the CPI in both the parametric and nonparametric models in the longer sample period. The nonparametric model outperforms the parametric model for both data samples and for all five in-sample forecast horizons.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2010.508732
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 44 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (February)
Pages: 493-514

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:4:p:493-514

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jianqing Fan & Qiwei Yao, 1998. "Efficient estimation of conditional variance functions in stochastic regression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6635, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Robert Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005. "A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures," Staff Reports 236, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Zongwu Cai & Jianqing Fan & Qiwei Yao, 2000. "Functional-coefficient regression models for nonlinear time series," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6314, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Discussion Paper 1992-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Marron, J S, 1988. "Automatic Smoothing Parameter Selection: A Survey," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3/4), pages 187-208.
  6. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2008. "Inflation regimes and inflation expectations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 229-243.
  7. Michael Creel & Dennis Kristensen, 2009. "Estimation of Dynamic Latent Variable Models Using Simulated Nonparametric Moments," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 792.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  8. Oliver LINTON, . "Applied nonparametric methods," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  9. Jushan Bai, 1995. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Working papers 95-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  10. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Revisions to PCE inflation measures: implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 08-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  11. Elliott, Graham, 2002. "Comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-539, December.
  12. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
  13. Florian Hoppner & Christian Melzer & Thorsten Neumann, 2008. "Changing effects of monetary policy in the US-evidence from a time-varying coefficient VAR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2353-2360.
  14. Thérèse Laf;èche & Jamie Armour, 2006. "Evaluating Measures of Core Inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Summer), pages 19-29.
  15. Fujiwara, Ippei & Koga, Maiko, 2004. "A Statistical Forecasting Method for Inflation Forecasting: Hitting Every Vector Autoregression and Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(1), pages 123-142, March.
  16. Wolfgang HÄRDLE & A. TSYBAKOV, 1995. "Local Polynomial Estimators of the Volatility Function in Nonparametric Autoregression," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,42, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  17. Chauvet, Marcelle & Tierney, Heather L. R., 2007. "Real Time Changes in Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 16199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
  18. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
  19. P. M. Robinson, 1998. "Inference-Without-Smoothing in the Presence of Nonparametric Autocorrelation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1163-1182, September.
  20. Kozicki, Sharon, 2002. "Comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 541-557, December.
  21. Tristen Hayfield & Jeffrey S. Racine, . "Nonparametric Econometrics: The np Package," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(i05).
  22. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
  23. Cai, Zongwu, 2007. "Trending time-varying coefficient time series models with serially correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 163-188, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2013. "Forecasting and Tracking Real-Time Data Revisions in Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 51398, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:4:p:493-514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.