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Energy futures prices: term structure models with Kalman filter estimation

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  • Mihaela Manoliu
  • Stathis Tompaidis
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    Abstract

    We present a class of multi-factor stochastic models for energy futures prices, similar to the interest rate futures models recently formulated by Heath. We do not postulate directly the risk-neutral processes followed by futures prices, but define energy futures prices in terms of a spot price, not directly observable, driven by several stochastic factors. Our formulation leads to an expression for futures prices which is well suited to the application of Kalman filtering techniques together with maximum likelihood estimation methods. Based on these techniques, we perform an empirical study of a one- and a two-factor model for futures prices for natural gas.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504860210126227
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Mathematical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 9 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 21-43

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apmtfi:v:9:y:2002:i:1:p:21-43

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    Related research

    Keywords: Multi-FACTOR Term Structure Models; Kalman Filter Estimation;

    References

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    1. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
    2. Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Michael Ye & John Zyren & Joanne Shore & Thomas Lee, 2010. "Crude Oil Futures as an Indicator of Market Changes: A Graphical Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 257-268, August.
    2. Suenaga, Hiroaki, 2013. "Measuring bias in a term-structure model of commodity prices through the comparison of simultaneous and sequential estimation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 53-66.
    3. Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Rudolf, Markus, 2013. "Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 273-290.
    4. Chevallier, Julien & Aboura, Sofiane, 2014. "Volatility equicorrelation: A cross-market perspective," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/12323, Paris Dauphine University.
    5. Ohana, Steve, 2010. "Modeling global and local dependence in a pair of commodity forward curves with an application to the US natural gas and heating oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 373-388, March.
    6. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Eterovic, Francisco, 2010. "Can oil prices help estimate commodity futures prices? The cases of copper and silver," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 283-291, December.
    7. Marina Resta, 2004. "Multifractal analysis of Power Markets. Some empirical evidence," Econometrics 0410002, EconWPA.
    8. Elliott, Robert J. & Hyndman, Cody. B., 2007. "Parameter estimation in commodity markets: A filtering approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2350-2373, July.
    9. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
    10. Date, Paresh & Mamon, Rogemar & Tenyakov, Anton, 2013. "Filtering and forecasting commodity futures prices under an HMM framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1001-1013.
    11. Paschke, Raphael & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2007. "Integrating Multiple Commodities in a Model of Stochastic Price Dynamics," MPRA Paper 5412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mirantes, Andrés García & Población, Javier & Serna, Gregorio, 2013. "The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 155-166.
    13. Nomikos, Nikos K. & Soldatos, Orestes A., 2010. "Modelling short and long-term risks in power markets: Empirical evidence from Nord Pool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5671-5683, October.
    14. Kovacevic, Raimund M. & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2012. "Medium-term Planning for Thermal Electricity Production," Working Papers on Finance 1220, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.

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