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Interest rate futures: estimation of volatility parameters in an arbitrage-free framework

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Author Info

  • Ramaprasad Bhar
  • Carl Chiarella

Abstract

Hedging interest rate exposures using interest rate futures contracts requires some knowledge of the volatility function of the interest rates. Use of historical data as well as interest rate options like caps and swaptions to estimate this volatility function have been proposed in the literature. In this paper the interest rate futures price is modelled within an arbitrage-free framework for a volatility function which includes a stochastic variable, the instantaneous spot interest rate. The resulting system is expressed in a state space form which is solved using an extended Kalman filter. The residual diagnostics indicate suitability of the model and the bootstrap resampling technique is used to obtain small sample properties of the parameters of the volatility function.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Mathematical Finance.

Volume (Year): 4 (1997)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 181-199

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apmtfi:v:4:y:1997:i:4:p:181-199

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Related research

Keywords: Interest Rate Futures; Heath-jarrow-morton Model; Arbitrage-free; Kalman Filter; Bootstrap;

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References

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  1. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1995. "The Estimation of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model by Use of Kalman Filtering Techniques," Working Paper Series 54, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
  3. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1995. "Transformation of Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models to Markovian Systems," Working Paper Series 53, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  4. Carl Chiarella & Nadima El-Hassan, 1996. "A Preference Free Partial Differential Equation for the Term Stucture of Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 63, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  5. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, October.
  6. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
  7. Bhar, R. & Hunt, D.F., 1993. "Predicting the Short Term Forward Interest Rate Structure Using a Parsimonious Model," Papers e9307, Western Sydney - School of Business And Technology.
  8. Robert Jarrow & Stuart Turnbull, 1994. "Delta, gamma and bucket hedging of interest rate derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 21-48.
  9. Carl Chiarella & Nadima El-Hassan, 1997. "Evaluation of Derivative Security Prices in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework as Path Integrals Using Fast Fourier Transform Techniques," Working Paper Series 72, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  10. Peter Ritchken & L. Sankarasubramanian, 1995. "Volatility Structures Of Forward Rates And The Dynamics Of The Term Structure," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 55-72.
  11. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
  12. Andrew Carverhill, 1994. "When Is The Short Rate Markovian?," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 305-312.
  13. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
  14. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Toan Pham, 2000. "Modeling the Currency Forward Risk Premium: Theory and Evidence," Research Paper Series 41, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1996. "Construction of Zero-Coupon Yield Curve From Coupon Bond Yield Using Australian Data," Working Paper Series 70, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  3. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Thuy Duong To, 2002. "A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Estimation of Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models," Research Paper Series 80, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  4. Shin Ichi Aihara & Arunabha Bagchi, 2010. "Identification Of Affine Term Structures From Yield Curve Data," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 259-283.
  5. Yassine El Qalli, 2010. "Recursive Bayesian Estimation In Forward Price Models Implied By Fair Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 301-333.

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