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Hydropower with Financial Information

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  • E. Nasakkala
  • J. Keppo
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    Abstract

    The paper considers a single utility company's long- and medium-term hydropower planning. The uncertainties are from the electricity forward curve and a random inflow. A simple and intuitive parameterization is given for the optimal production strategy. The accuracy of the parameterization is analysed by comparing its expected cash flows with the corresponding upper bound. In a test case the proposed method is compared with the realized production strategy of a Norwegian hydropower producer during winters 1997-2003. The parameterization gives earnings that are within 2.6% from the theoretical upper bound. Further, the results illustrate that during some years, part of the realized production strategy can be explained with the method, suggesting that during these years the forward curve information has already been incorporated in the production planning. However, even during the years when the correlation between the proposed strategy and the realized production is low, the strategy would have increased the realized earnings. This suggests that the information from the derivative markets would improve the production strategy.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Mathematical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 5-6 ()
    Pages: 503-529

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apmtfi:v:15:y:2008:i:5-6:p:503-529

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    Related research

    Keywords: Electricity forward curve; hydropower production;

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    Cited by:
    1. Elverhøi, Morten & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Fuss, Sabine & Heggedal, Ane Marte & Szolgayova, Jana & Troland, Ole Christian, 2010. "Evaluation of hydropower upgrade projects - a real options approach," MPRA Paper 23005, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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