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The Australian yield curve as a leading indicator of consumption growth

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  • Chay Fisher
  • Bruce Felmingham
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    Abstract

    The purpose of the reported research is to determine if Australia's real consumption growth is predicted by real and/or nominal yield spreads. To this end, a model of the relationship between consumption growth and interest rates is derived from neoclassical, utility maximizing premises. This theoretical foundation is applied to quarterly Australian data over the period 1983:4 to 1995:4. The time series on real consumption and yield spreads is stationary. Initial OLS estimates are subjected to the Newey West transformation and show that all 'real' spreads from one quarter to two years are significant, but at the short end these are of the wrong sign. Nominal spreads of one and two year length influence real consumption growth. The model provides accurate out-of-sample predictions. GMM estimation of the relationship between real spreads and real consumption are significant and of the correct sign at the longer end of the yield curve. Policy implications are indicated.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/096031098332664
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 8 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 627-635

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:8:y:1998:i:6:p:627-635

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    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20

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    Cited by:
    1. Bruce Felmingham & Su San Leong, 2003. "The stationarity of Australian real interest rates with and without structural breaks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 239-241.
    2. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries," Papers 1005.1326, arXiv.org.
    3. Hyde, Stuart & Sherif, Mohamed, 2010. "Consumption asset pricing and the term structure," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 99-109, February.
    4. Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
    5. Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "Does The Term Structure Predict Australia’S Future Output Growth?," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 139, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    6. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2012. "GDP trend deviations and the yield spread: the case of eight E.U. countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 226-237, January.

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