Does trading activity contain information to predict stock returns? Evidence from Euronext Paris
AbstractThis article aims to examine the causal and dynamic relationship between trading activity and stock returns, using detailed intraday data from Euronext Paris. We distinguish between two measures of trading activity: the raw volume metric (the nondirectional volume) and the directional volume. In line with the existing literature, we find a unidirectional causality running from stock returns to nondirectional volume. Furthermore, we highlight a strong bidirectional relation between stock returns and directional volume. This result is interesting and has several implications. First, it provides evidence that the directional volume is more informative than the nondirectional volume. Second, it shows that the directional volume helps predict stock returns. Third, it provides an empirical test for the Mixture Distribution Hypothesis (MDH) and the sequential arrival hypothesis, which posit that the information content of the trading activity affects future returns.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 22 (2012)
Issue (Month): 8 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.