Do credit default swaps predict currency values?
AbstractUsing daily data of four currencies (Japanese Yen (JPY), Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP) and Australian Dollar (AUD)) in terms of the US Dollar (USD), and JPY, USD, GBP and AUD in terms of the EUR from January 2004 to February 2008, we examine the lead-lag relationship between the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market and the currency market. Results indicate significant Granger-causality effects flowing from changes in both the North American investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) CDS indices to changes in the JPY, EUR and AUD exchange rates in terms of the USD for the whole period and during the credit crisis of 2007 to 2008. However, for the four currencies in terms of the EUR, significant Granger-causality of the credit risk is found only in the AUD. Our results indicate that changes in CDS index spreads signal important carry-trade information for some currencies, but not others.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 20 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/routledge/09603107.html
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Romain Cuchet & Pascal Fran�Ois & Georges H�Bner, 2013.
"Currency total return swaps: valuation and risk factor analysis,"
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 1135-1148, February.
- Romain Cuchet & Pascal François & Georges Hübner, 2011. "Currency Total Return Swaps: Valuation and Risk Factor Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 1128, CIRPEE.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.