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The effect on the Swedish real economy of the financial crisis

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  • Par Osterholm

Abstract

This article investigates the effects of the financial crisis on the Swedish real economy. In order to do this, an index which describes the financial conditions of the Swedish economy is developed. The index indicates that domestic Swedish financial conditions have deteriorated substantially during 2008 and are now at the highest level since the crisis of the early 1990s. A Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with both US and Swedish variables is used to assess the quantitative effects of the financial crisis on Swedish real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Results suggest that the growth of the Swedish economy will be substantially slower in the next couple of years due to the financial crisis.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100903357408
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 265-274

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:20:y:2010:i:4:p:265-274

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  1. repec:fth:bfdipa:17/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Research Department Publications 4445, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  3. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2001. "Financial conditions indexes," Research Discussion Papers 17/2001, Bank of Finland.
  4. Meredith Beechey & P�R �Sterholm, 2008. "A Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model with Informative Steady-state Priors for the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(267), pages 449-465, December.
  5. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Lof, Marten, 2005. "Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 377-389.
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