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The stock market and the Fed

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Author Info
Fabrizio Mattesini
Leonardo Becchetti

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Abstract

This article investigates the reaction of the Federal Reserve to developments in the stock market. The issue is analysed by first constructing an Index of Stock Price Misalignment (ISPM) in which the fundamental value of the stocks is computed on the basis of the discounted cash flow approach and by then including this index, among the regressors, into a forward looking Taylor rule. In accordance with the descriptive evidence, based mainly on the analysis of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings and public statements, our findings show that the Fed tends to lower the Fed funds rate when stock prices fall below their fundamental value, while there is no evidence of monetary stringency during episodes of exuberance in the stock market.

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File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/09603100701790586&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 99-110
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:19:y:2009:i:2:p:99-110

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  3. James Claus, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Samy Ben Naceur & Mohamed Goaied, 2004. "The value relevance of accounting and financial information: panel data evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(17), pages 1219-1224, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kaplan, Steven N & Ruback, Richard S, 1995. " The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1059-93, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Leonardo Becchetti & Fabrizio Adriani, 2004. "Do high-tech stock prices revert to their 'fundamental' value?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 461-476, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Charles M. C. Lee & James Myers & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 1999. "What is the Intrinsic Value of the Dow?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1693-1741, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bagella Michele & Becchetti Leonardo & Ciciretti Rocco, 2005. "Market versus Analysts Reaction: the Effect of Aggregate and Firm Specific News," Departmental Working Papers 211, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  13. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "UK Monetary Policy 1972-97: A Guide Using Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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