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Non-linear adjustment in the term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis in the non-linear STAR framework

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Author Info
Daiki Maki
Abstract

The term structure of interest rates in Japan is analysed by means of a cointegration test in a non-linear smooth transition autoregression (STAR) framework. The STAR approach tests for the null hypothesis with no cointegration against cointegration including a globally stationary process. The results of the STAR cointegration test, differing from the results of cointegration tests assuming linear adjustment, show that the long-run equilibrium relationship between long-term and short-term interest rates is stable with non-linear adjustment. The results indicate non-linear adjustment in the term structure of Japanese interest rates.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2006)
Issue (Month): 17 (November)
Pages: 1301-1307
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:16:y:2006:i:17:p:1301-1307

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  1. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2003. "Re-examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread: a nonlinear approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 187-206. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  3. Zhang, Hua, 1993. "Treasury Yield Curves and Cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 361-67, March.
  4. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas, 1998. "Term Structure and Interest Differentials as Predictors of Future Inflation Changes and Inflation Differentials," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 615-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin & Andy Snell, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Nonlinear STAR Error Correction Models," Working Papers 497, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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