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Trading futures spreads: an application of correlation and threshold filters

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Author Info
C.L. Dunis
Jason Laws
Ben Evans
Abstract

A clear motivation for this paper is the investigation of a correlation filter to improve the return/risk performance of spread trading models. A further motivation for this paper is the extension of trading futures spreads beyond the 'Fair Value’ type of model used by Butterworth and Holmes (2002). The trading models tested are the following: the cointegration 'fair value’ approach; reverse moving average (of which the results of the 20-day model are shown here); traditional regression techniques; and Neural Network Regression. Also shown is the effectiveness of two types of filter: a standard filter and a correlation filter on the trading rule returns. Results show that the best model for trading the WTI--Brent spread is the MACD model, which proved to be profitable, both in- and out-of-sample. This is evidenced by out-of-sample annualised returns of 26.35% for the standard filter and 26.15% for the correlation filter (inclusive of transactions costs).

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2006)
Issue (Month): 12 (August)
Pages: 903-914
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:16:y:2006:i:12:p:903-914

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  1. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1997. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 97-31, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Board, J. & Sutcliffe, C., 1993. "The Dual Listing of Stock Index Futures: Arbitrage, Spread Arbitrage and Currency Risk," Papers 93-76, University of Southampton - Department of Accounting and Management Science.
  3. Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lukac, Louis P & Brorsen, B Wade, 1990. "A Comprehensive Test of Futures Market Disequilibrium," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 593-622, November.
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