Fertility, human capital, and macroeconomic performance: long-term interactions and short-run dynamics
AbstractLong-run interactions and short-run dynamics among the fertility rate, the accumulation of human capital and macroeconomic performance are examined in several developing countries. While fertility and human capital influence how fast countries grow as traditionally believed, it is argued that both of these growth-promoting factors may themselves be driven by income changes. Past research also neglects the theoretical possibility that the growth consequences of fertility and human capital are inherently slow to develop and require broader models that incorporate long- as well as short-term effects. Two main inferences emerge from the empirical analysis: (a) there exists a robust long-term (cointegrating) relation linking together fertility, human capital and economic growth in all countries studied. Thus, the failure of previous studies to account for the underlying long-term relation could seriously bias their inferences regarding the impact of fertility and/or human capital on economic growth in developing countries, and (b) coherent evidence is also obtained from a whole range of tests and models supportive of a pivotal role of human capital accumulation in shaping macroeconomic performance in the sample.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 14 (2004)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan Krueger & Mikael Lindahl, 2000.
"Education for Growth: Why and For Whom?,"
808, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
- Marcel Fafchamps & Agnes R. Quisumbing, .
"Human Capital, Productivity, and Labor Allocation in Rural Pakistan,"
97019, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Marcel Fafchamps & Agnes R. Quisumbing, 1999. "Human Capital, Productivity, and Labor Allocation in Rural Pakistan," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(2), pages 369-406.
- Fafchamps, Marcel & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 1998. "Human capital, productivity, and labor allocation in rural Pakistan," FCND discussion papers 48, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 58-78.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997.
"I just ran four million regressions,"
Economics Working Papers
201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- David Lam & Suzanne Duryea, 1999. "Effects of Schooling on Fertility, Labor Supply, and Investments in Children, with Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(1), pages 160-192.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
- Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000.
"Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age,"
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
261, OECD Publishing.
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 125-236.
- Lupoletti, William M & Webb, Roy H, 1986. "Defining and Improving the Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Contributions from a VAR Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 263-85, April.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert F. Tamura, 1990.
"Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M & Tamura, Robert, 1990. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S12-37, October.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, . "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 90-5a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992.
"The Power of Cointegration Tests,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
- Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992.
"Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems,"
4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 2228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Ladron-de-Guevara, Antonio & Ortigueira, Salvador & Santos, Manuel S., 1997.
"Equilibrium dynamics in two-sector models of endogenous growth,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-143, January.
- Antonio Ladron de Guevara & Salvador Ortigueira & Manuel S. Santos, 1994. "Equilibrium Dynamics in Two-Sector Models of Endogenous Growth," Working Papers 9403, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- Tallman, Ellis W. & Wang, Ping, 1994.
"Human capital and endogenous growth evidence from Taiwan,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 101-124, August.
- Ellis W. Tallman & Ping Wang, 1990. "Human capital and endogenous growth: evidence from Taiwan," Working Paper 90-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-59, October.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
- Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
- Ali F. Darrat & Jayanta Sarkar, 2009. "Growth Consequences Of Foreign Direct Investment: Some Results For Turkey," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 85-96, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.