Options trading profits from correlation forecasts
AbstractThis study examines the profitability of trading currency straddles on the basis of the volatility and correlation forecasts derived from various statistical models. There is evidence to demonstrate that for maximum wealth accumulation, a trader should employ sophisticated models like the exponential GARCH for correlation forecasts and simpler ones like the exponential weighted moving average for volatility forecasts. With differing transaction costs structure between traders, the directional bets taken by the models of the market maker for the most part appear successful, reaping large positive returns. This is especially evident for GBP/DEM straddles and to a lesser extent for JPY/DEM straddles. However, the options trading strategy profits of the price taker are insufficient to outweigh transaction costs, a result considered consistent with market efficiency.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 14 (2004)
Issue (Month): 15 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert F. Engle & Alex Kane & Jaesun Noh, 1993. "Index-Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 4519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038 Elsevier.
- Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1992.
"A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- West, Kenneth D. & Edison, Hali J. & Cho, Dongchul, 1993. "A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-45, August.
- Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1993. "A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 441, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2002.
"Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, .
"The Cost of Institutional Equity Trades,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
08-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, . "The Cost of Institutional Equity Trades," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 8-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Campa, J.M. & Chang, P.H.K., 1995.
"The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options,"
95-26, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
- Jose M. Campa & P. H. Kevin Chang, 1997. "The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options," NBER Working Papers 5974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert F. Engle & Che-Hsiung Hong & Alex Kane, 1990. "Valuation of Variance Forecast with Simulated Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 3350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
- Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs, 2004. "Which GARCH Model for Option Valuation?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1204-1221, September.
- M. Brunetti & C. Torricelli, 2007. "The internal and cross market efficiency in index option markets: an investigation of the Italian market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 25-33.
- Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Michele Gobbo, 2006. "Flexible Dynamic Conditional Correlation multivariate GARCH models for asset allocation," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 123-130, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.