Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Volatility transmission across the term structure of swap markets: international evidence

Contents:

Author Info

  • Pilar Abad
  • Alfonso Novales

Abstract

The behaviour of volatility across the term structure of interest rate swaps is characterized in three currencies (Deutsche mark, Japanese yen and US dollar). For that purpose, a modified GARCH-in mean model is used allowing for seasonal patterns in the mean and variance of interest rates and asymmetric responses to interest rate surprises. Daily interest rate changes are found (a) to be predictable, following autoregressive structures, and (b) to display weekly seasonality. Additionally, interest rate volatility is shown to (a) decrease with maturity, (b) be very persistent and hence, somewhat predictable, which is important when pricing derivatives on swap products, (c) show a tendency to be lower at the beginning of the week, increasing later on, and (d) to respond asymmetrically to interest rate innovations. These properties could clearly be used in risk management with interest rate swaps. Finally, significant transmission of volatility is found from the very short-term to longer-term interest rates. This evidence supports the importance attributed by most central banks to achieving stability in short-term interest rates.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0960310042000245563
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2004)
Issue (Month): 14 ()
Pages: 1045-1058

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:14:p:1045-1058

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAFE20

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  2. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
  5. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
  7. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
  9. Juan Ayuso & Andrew Haldane & Fernando Restoy, 1997. "Volatility transmission along the money market yield curve," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 56-75, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Silvio Colarossi & Andrea Zaghini, 2009. "Gradualism, transparency and the improved operational framework: a look at the overnight volatility transmission," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 710, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Bank for International Settlements, 2006. "The recent behaviour of financial market volatility," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 29, 6.
  3. Colarossi, Silvio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2007. "Gradualism, transparency and improved operational framework: A look at the overnight volatility transmission," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:14:p:1045-1058. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.