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Econometrics of yield spreads in the money market: a note

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  • S. K. Bhaumik
  • D. Coondoo

Abstract

The literature on bond markets and interest rates has focused largely on the term structure of interest rates, specifically, on the so-called expectations hypothesis. At the same time, little is known about the nature of the spread of the interest rates in the money market beyond the fact that such spreads are generally unstable. However, with the evolution of complex financial instruments, it has become imperative to identify the time series process that can help one accurately forecast such spreads into the future. This article explores the nature of the time series process underlying the spread between three-month and one-year US rates, and concludes that the movements in this spread over time is best captured by a GARCH(1,1) process. It also suggests the use of a relatively long term measure of interest rate volatility as an explanatory variable. This exercise has gained added importance in view of the revelation that GARCH based estimates of option prices consistently outperform the corresponding estimates based on the stylized Black-Scholes algorithm.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2003)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
Pages: 645-653

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:9:p:645-653

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  1. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
  2. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
  3. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
  4. Franses,Philip Hans, 1998. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521586412, Fall.
  5. Steven L. Heston & Saikat Nandi, 1997. "A closed-form GARCH option pricing model," Working Paper 97-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
  8. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
  9. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-99, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Jonathan Batten & Warren Hogan & Gady Jacoby, 2005. "Measuring credit spreads: evidence from Australian Eurobonds," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 651-666.

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