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Modelling volatility and testing for efficiency in emerging capital markets: the case of the Athens stock exchange

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  • Gregorios Siourounis

Abstract

This study employs GARCH type models and tests for their validity over an Emerging Capital Market, the Athens Stock Exchange Market (ASE). Correct specification, of the different models, implies that the Weak Efficient Market Hypothesis does not hold for ASE. There is strong empirical evidence that ASE follows a pattern where last period's daily returns are correlated with today's returns and current volatility is positively related to past realizations. Negative shocks have an asymmetric impact on the daily stock returns series and political instabilities increase volatility over time. The mean of the series does not change during high volatile periods.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100110088003
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 47-55

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:12:y:2002:i:1:p:47-55

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Cited by:
  1. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "Market capitalization and efficiency. Does it matter? Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 707-713.
  2. Anastassios A. Drakos & Georgios P. Kouretas & Leonidas P. Zarangas, 2010. "Forecasting financial volatility of the Athens stock exchange daily returns: an application of the asymmetric normal mixture GARCH model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 331-350.
  3. Athanassiou, Emmanuel & Kollias, Christos & Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2006. "Dynamic volatility and external security related shocks: The case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 411-424, December.
  4. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2009. "Does financial market liberalization increase the degree of market efficiency? The case of the Athens stock exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 50-57, March.
  5. Jorge Caiado, 2004. "Modelling And Forecasting The Volatility Of The Portuguese Stock Index Psi-20," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Technical University of Lisbon, vol. 0(1), pages 3-21.
  6. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2004. "Financial market liberalization and stock market efficiency: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 103-123, August.
  7. Karampinis, Nikolaos I. & Hevas, Dimosthenis L., 2011. "Mandating IFRS in an Unfavorable Environment: The Greek Experience," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 304-332, September.
  8. David Chappell & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "Using the correlation dimension to detect non-linear dynamics: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Econometrics 0504005, EconWPA.

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