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Measuring Convergence Speed of Asset Prices toward a Pre-announced Target

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Dewachter, Hans
Veestraeten, Dirk

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Abstract

This study examines asset price dynamics (i.e. the convergence speed) in the event of pre-announced conversion values and dates. The theoretical framework for these dynamics has been developed in De Grauwe et al. (1999). Two instances of conversion are examined, notably the 1879-Resumption of Specie Payments in the USA and the conversion of European currencies into the Euro on 1 January, 1999. In the econometric model the underlying fundamentals are treated as unobservable and their evolution is estimated via a Kalman filtering technique. Estimation results reveal values for the rate or speed of convergence that are in line with intuition and amount to levels well below (implicit) estimates listed in the literature. Copyright 2001 by Taylor and Francis Group

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2001)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 591-601
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:11:y:2001:i:6:p:591-601

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  1. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1983. "A Model of Stochastic Process Switching," NBER Working Papers 0626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Meese, Richard A, 1986. "Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 345-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," NBER Working Papers 2998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 1999. "Price dynamics under stochastic process switching: some extensions and an application to EMU1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-224, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1994. "Speculative Anticipations of Sterling's Return to Gold: Was Keynes Wrong?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 804-12, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Klein, Michael W. & Lewis, Karen K., 1993. "Learning about intervention target zones," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 275-295, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Solution to a Problem of Stochastic Process Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 237-39, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gardeazabal, Javier & Regulez, Marta & Vazquez, Jesus, 1997. "Testing the Canonical Model of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 389-404, May.
  10. Burda, Michael & Gerlach, Stefan, 1993. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Currency Unification: The Ostmark-DM Rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 417-29.
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  11. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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