Forecasting capital flows to emerging markets: a Kalman filtering approach
AbstractThis article provides capital flow forecasts to 32 developing countries using an unobserved components model and maximum likelihood Kalman filtering estimation. Permanent and temporary components of capital flows of bond, equity and syndicated loans are separated out to the countries concerned. Based on these models, and using monthly data up to December 2000, forecasts of various capital flows are presented for the period January 2001 to December 2003. The results of the time series based forecasts are then compared to those obtained using a fundamentals-based approach.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 11 (2001)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Lai, Jennifer /J.T., 2008. "Capital flow to China and the issue of hot money: an empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 32539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2009.
- Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2009.
"The Buffer Stock Model Redux? An Analysis of the Dynamics of Foreign Reserve Accumulation,"
Open Economies Review,
Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 525-543, September.
- Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2007. "The buffer stock model redux? An analysis of the dynamics of foreign reserve accumulation," Working Papers - Economics wp2007_02.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
- Ashoka Mody & Mark P. Taylor, 2013.
"International capital crunches: the time-varying role of informational asymmetries,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(20), pages 2961-2973, July.
- Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role of Informational Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3757, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark Taylor & Ashoka Mody, 2004. "International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role Of Informational Asymmetries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 113, Royal Economic Society.
- Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2008. "Reserve overstocking in a highly integrated world. New evidence from Asia and Latin America," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 315-336.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.