Fractional cointegration of voting and non-voting shares
AbstractVoting and non-voting shares of ten German companies are analysed for fractional cointegration. It turns out that seven pairs of price series are fractionally cointegrated. The estimated long-memory parameter of the equilibrium errors lies between 0.5 and 0.8. If two stocks are fractionally cointegrated, future returns of at least one of the stocks can be predicted by past prices. This contradicts the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis. A simple trading strategy is proposed and analysed; it leads to considerable excess returns in two out-of-sample evaluations.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 11 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20
Other versions of this item:
- Dittmann, Ingolf, 1998. "Fractional cointegration of voting and non-voting shares," Technical Reports 1998,40, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993.
"Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange RAte Dynamics,"
9103, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. " Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-45, June.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991.
"Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Cerchi, Marlene & Havenner, Arthur, 1988. "Cointegration and stock prices : The random walk on wall street revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 333-346.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-12, January.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1997. "Bandwidth Selection, Prewhitening, and the Power of the Phillips-Perron Test," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 679-691, October.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- Michael Dueker & Richard Startz, 1998. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation Of Fractional Cointegration With An Application To U.S. And Canadian Bond Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 420-426, August.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
- Dittmann, Ingolf, 1998. "Residual-based tests for fractional cointegration: A Monte Carlo study," Technical Reports 1998,09, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
- Krämer, Walter & Marmol, Francesc, 1998.
"The power of residual-based tests for cointegration when residuals are fractionally integrated,"
1998,42, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
- Kramer, Walter & Marmol, Francesc, 2004. "The power of residual-based tests for cointegration when residuals are fractionally integrated," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 63-69, January.
- Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Péguin-feissolle, 2010.
"Fractional integration and cointegration in stock prices and exchange rates,"
AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 115-129.
- Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2010. "Fractional integration and cointegration in stock prices and exchange rates," Working Papers halshs-00536140, HAL.
- Kellard, Neil & Dunis, Christian & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2010. "Foreign exchange, fractional cointegration and the implied-realized volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891, April.
- Breitung, Jörg & Wulff, Christian, 1999.
"Nonlinear error correction and the efficient market hypothesis: The case of German dual-class shares,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1999,67, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Jörg Breitung & Christian Wulff, 2001. "Non-linear Error Correction and the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Case of German Dual-Class Shares," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(4), pages 419-434, November.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:115-129 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.