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Simulated evidence on the distribution of the standardized one-step-ahead prediction errors in ARCH processes

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Author Info
Stavros Degiannakis
Evdokia Xekalaki

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Abstract

In statistical modelling contexts, the use of one-step-ahead prediction errors for testing hypotheses on the forecasting ability of an assumed model has been widely considered. Quite often, the testing procedure requires independence in a sequence of recursive standardized prediction errors, which cannot always be readily deduced particularly in the case of econometric modelling. In this paper, the results of a series of Monte Carlo simulations reveal that independence can be assumed to hold.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 31-37
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfelt:v:3:y:2007:i:1:p:31-37

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  1. Xekalaki, Evdokia & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2005. "Evaluating volatility forecasts in option pricing in the context of a simulated options market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 611-629, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Karanasos, Menelaos, 1999. "The second moment and the autocovariance function of the squared errors of the GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 63-76, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. repec:att:wimass:199520 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Stavros Degiannakis & Evdokia Xekalaki, 2007. "Assessing the performance of a prediction error criterion model selection algorithm in the context of ARCH models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 149-171, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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